Cold Calls - Things MUST Be Getting Bad Out There
More than two years ago I met some colleagues for lunch at a deli up in North County. I remember that day because, while we were ordering lunch we exchanged business cards. And there, on the counter, was a fishbowl with a note from Prudential saying that we could "win a free lunch" if our business card was selected from the fishbowl in some sort of drawing. Usually I never give out my information in that manner, because I know there's no raffle. Instead, the realtors will simply pull out a handful of business cards, find ones they like, call you and essentially "treat" you and some friends to lunch, during which they'll try to sell you their services.
However, I remember this event so clearly because the colleagues I met threw theirs in and encouraged me to do the same, so I threw mine in to, later lamenting it because I didn't want to get a call from a realtor trying to sell me. (I already get enough telemarketers pestering me throughout the day!) Of course, this event took place a couple years back when we were at the height of the real estate bubble, so, not surprisingly, I never did get a call from this Prudential realtor because business must have been so good he didn't need to stoop to cold calls.
Well, things have changed, because yesterday I got a call from a realtor from Prudential who was excited to inform me that my business card had been drawn from a contest at the same deli I had put my business card in two years ago! (That was, actually, the only time I had visited that deli, seeing as I am rarely north of San Diego.) Yes, things must be so slow now that this poor realtor's best lead is to cold call a guy whose business card was left two years ago. If that doesn't hammer home the current housing bubble state here in San Diego, I don't know what does.
6 Comments:
Last Sunday a realtor plastered every car in my apartment complex with a flyer for a condo that he was trying to unload down the road. The joke is that the condo was not as nice as what we were all renting (we had balconies, the condo did not.)
I guess he owned the property because it was not something that a realtor would waste a sunday afternoon with an open house on.
Great story!
I'm now getting flyers offering to sell my home FAST and open HELOCs to cash in my equity.
I live in an apartment complex!
Go figure. Real Estate must be really dead in SD.
I too have recently been getting fliers thrown on my door mat from realtors who want to sell my condo fast. Thing is, I rent and promptly throw these ads into the recycling bin. Also, there are open houses in the middle of the week and none of the condos in my area (Mira Mesa) are selling. I suspect that if condos are slowing at the low end, then SFR's aren't too far behind.
I recently read that there are more licensed realtors in California than there are properties for sale. Getting carpet-bombed by realtors really isn't anything new, and I don't think it's much of a reliable indicator. For the most part, selling real estate is a miserable profession, and while there are some superstars, the vast majority of realtors are fighting over small scraps of the pie. For decades, we've had an ample supply of calendars, notepads, and magnets.
That said, I can offer a counterpoint to your general perspective. I understand where you're coming from. I spent 15 years holding markedly similar views on California real estate. The market here never made much sense to one who grew up in the Midwest where land was plentiful and cheap, and you had ample buffer zones on all sides of your house to keep annoying neighbors at bay. As you might guess, during my tenure as a local prophet of doom, property values continued their relentless march to idiocy. I sense and understand your frustraion quite well.
In the past year, however, I have joined the ranks of the landed gentry. The decision was not driven so much by extrinsic factors as a singular intrinsic one: the question. Over the years, the persistent question was "When will this housing market get back to reality?" Wrong question. The important question is this: "Do I want to live here?" You need to approach the question with the same forethought and commitment as "Do I want to marry that girl?". The only answer that really means "yes", is an unqualified yes. Either you do or you don't. Period. If you don't, that's fine, and it means you can stop fretting about the market and get on with where you do want to be. If you do, however, you need to make it happen. Waiting for Godot is not going to make it happen.
Believe me, I know it's expensive. Specualtive froth? Sure, there are always speculators, but the real reason is, quite simply, people want to live here. When I was in grad school, most of my friends were international students. I was amazed California's worldwide reputation. Mention "California" to them, eyes widen and voices drop to a reverential tone as they press you for all kinds of information about the Golden State. San Diego? What California is to the world, San Diego is to California. We tend to forget that when we're stuck in traffic behind the idiot flicking his cigarette ash out his window.
This isn't pets.com (or Phoenix, for that matter). There are tangible, concrete reasons why it costs a ransom to live here. As I said, I know where you're coming from. I also know that I'm not going to change your mind, as no one else was able to change mine. However, you might consider this some advanced hindsight refracted through 15 years of observation of the San Diego market. You might just learn the lesson a little quicker than I did.
bonthomme, thanks for your perspective on the matter. My wife and I actually do own our own little slice on condo heaven here in San Diego, bought back in 2001 when prices seemed so high. We bought for the same reasons you mention - we wanted to live here long term.
As we are getting older together, we are getting ready to start a family, and are itching to get out of the condo market. But single family home prices are outrageous. Will they ever be equal to Midwest prices? No, but at their current state they are out of line with reality, and by quite a margin. Prices WILL come down, of this I am certain. When only 8% of San Diego's residents can afford a median-priced property, something has got to give. As interest rates go up, as lending standards tighten, as ARMs start adjusting, there will be unstoppable force pushing the housing prices back to reality. And we're already starting to see this, as evidenced here, on other blogs, and in the "real world."
But, yes, one can wait forever to buy a home, because the prices will always be too high for folks like myself, since "too high" is relative. So at some point one has to pull the tigger, so to speak, but to do so at this point in time, when mortgage-to-income and mortgage-to-rent costs are so fundamentally out of whack, is preposterous. For those who can wait for this market to return to reality, they'll fare much better fiscally in the long run. And I hope/expect my wife and I can wait another couple of years for price retreats.
I guess to think of this as a bubble is too easy. The ramifications of people overburdened with debt will last decades and not be over as quickly as a bubble bursting.
Post a Comment
<< Home